I know you hear it all the time that it’s do or die for Donald Trump or that it’s do or die for Bernie Sanders, and so on and so on and so on.
Well, this time it just so happens that it’s true when it comes to the New York Primary.
There are 95 delegates up for grabs in New York.
The New York primary is not a winner take all primary.
In order for Trump to win all 95 delegates he’d have to win the statewide vote with more than 50 percent of the vote, and he’d have to do it in all 27 congressional districts.
It’s not impossible, but it’s tough, even with his healthy lead in the polls.
If Donald Trump doesn’t win the majority of the 95 delegates up for grabs in the Empire State it makes the likelihood of him getting 1,237 delegates nationwide before the convention less likely.
Thus, it makes a brokered Republican convention in July more likely.
If there is a contested convention Trump says he’s concerned about rioting.
Trump – “I hope it doesn’t involve violence. I don’t think it will. But I will say this, it’s a rigged system.”
Donald Trump says the system is corrupt and if he becomes the nominee he is going to fire current RNC chairman, Reince Priebus on the spot at the convention.
By the way, if he does become the nominee, the rules would allow Trump to do that.
On the Democratic side, the stakes are even higher for Bernie Sanders.
If he doesn’t pull off an upset, political strategists say the path to a nomination becomes virtually impossible because the delegate math is not only not on his side, but it becomes virtually impossible for Sanders to get to the Dems magic delegate threshold of 2,383.
Trying to reach that threshold is causing the rhetoric on the left to rival the rhetoric on the right.
On the eve of the New York Primary, Hillary Clinton surrogate and former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm told me she’s worried that the vitriol will damage her candidate and her party’s chances of winning the white house come November.
The former head of the NAACP, Ben Jealous told me the problem is not Sanders damaging Clinton but the Clinton’s condescending to younger activists in the Democratic Party.
Granholm – “Ultimately Don this primary cannot damage the democratic candidate for the general election. I totally get them fighting about policy”
Lemon – “You think that’s happening?”
Granholm – “Yes.”
Lemon – “How so?”
Granholm – “When you start fighting about character, when you raising as though somehow linked to her being compromised when all of her policies have been tough on Wall Street, when all of her policy has been in support of the base of the Democratic Party and that is a problem.”
Jealous – “Look, what I’m concerned about is how Bill and Hillary Clinton have disrespected young activists repeatedly. These young activists are the future of our party and yes they’re primarily with our candidate, but what also is true is that we’re going to need them this fall with whoever is on the ballot. And you cannot have people as respected as the Clinton’s repeatedly insulting Greenpeace activists, Black Lives Matter activists and not have it have a real impact and you’ve got to have that change.”
The arguing will continue – probably until June because of regardless of what happens in New York on primary day or night, Sanders has vowed to stay in the race.
In other words, it ain’t over folks until it’s over.