There is a polling company named Rasmussen that Donald Trump loves to quote. It leans a bit conservative and often has his approval rating as being higher than virtually any other poll. Because of this, Rasmussen is often called Trump’s “favorite polling company.”
That’s part of the reason why a poll Rasmussen released yesterday is such a big deal. After Oprah’s rousing speech at the Golden Globes on Sunday, the rumors about her running for President reached a fever pitch. For the first time, even Gayle and Stedman hinted at the real possibility that Oprah was considering it.
So Rasmussen decided to find out what people actually felt about a 2020 presidential matchup between Oprah Winfrey and Donald Trump. And I think the results are actually very important. In Trump’s favorite poll, in a head to head matchup against Donald Trump, Oprah Winfrey beats him by 10 points. My guess is that when we see other companies release their polling numbers on the matchup, between Oprah and Trump, she’ll beat him by an even wider margin.
Now, I wanna spend just a few minutes this morning breaking down what this means – and shattering a few myths and lies I keep hearing.
The first lie that I have to come against is that it’s too early to be talking about who is going to run for President in 2020. This simply isn’t true. Can it be the only thing we do politically? Of course not. Do we need to mainly focus on essential midterm elections happening later this year? Absolutely. But we can chew gum and walk at the same time.
Let me tell you happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton. In 2014, she decided she was going to run, assembled a team behind the scenes, and began locking up the support of Democratic superdelegates long before a single vote had even been cast. Because of her movement behind the scenes, other competitive Democrats, like Elizabeth Warren, who wanted to run, opted not to challenge her, and we ended up with a very strange Democratic primary where she only ran against two people – a governor few people had ever heard of and a man who isn’t even a Democrat – Bernie Sanders.
It’s my belief that this failed Democratic primary, which didn’t strengthen Hillary, but weakened her, is part of the reason why she lost to Donald Trump. Primaries are normally highly competitive races between 8-10 political all-stars from within the party and the person who wins normally goes into the general election with a ton of momentum. That’s exactly what Obama did back in 2008.
I said all of that to say that right now, the men and women who are going to run for President in the next election, are already gathering their support, forming teams, and getting all of their ducks in a row. It’s not too early to be talking about this race. It’s actually the smartest time. Otherwise, the political machine will pick the candidates for us. We actually have the greatest input right now, before the race is set.
Now the next point I am going to make is a controversial one and has irritated many of most progressive friends. Let me preface it by saying I am not saying Oprah is my choice to run against Trump. I am simply saying that I am 100% sure she could beat him. Now here’s the point I want to make and I hope you really consider it.
I actually think Donald Trump is a formidable political opponent. 17 Republicans took him lightly and one by one they lost. Governors, Senators, CEOs – several experienced candidates who were widely expected to win, found themselves squashed like bugs by Trump. Not only is he formidable, but none of the traditional rules apply to him. He lies. His character is horrible. He changes political positions whenever he feels like it and has an enormous following on social media that he wields to dominate the news cycle.
In 2016, he had more followers on Twitter and Facebook than all of his Republican opponents combined. I said all of that to make my final point.
I actually think only a few people would easily beat Donald Trump. Do not assume an automatic victory. Hillary Clinton did that and lost as well. Others could beat him, but only a few would mop the floor with him.
Whoever beats him needs 5 things:
- A huge following on social media. It’s key.
- They need to be able to already pack a stadium.
- They need to already have a highly devoted base of support.
- They need to pose a very strong contrast to Donald Trump.
- They need to be highly motivational.
Oprah fits the bill for all 5 of those points. 3 other people do as well. Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden. I am confident all 4 of them could beat Trump.
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