After hundreds of political rallies and thousands of campaign speeches, Election Day has finally arrived and here’s my prediction: President Barack Obama will win re-election to the White House Tuesday – despite the superstitious so-called “Redskins Rule.”
Since the NFL’s Redskins moved to Washington in 1937, the rule has held true: When the Redskins lose their home game the Sunday before a presidential election, the challenger for the White House wins.
The “Redskins Rule” held up for Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, when the Redskins beat the Steelers 37-10; and for then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, when the Redskins lost to the Steelers by 23 to 6 – and every election in between.
The Redskins lost Sunday to the Carolina Panthers 21-13. If the “Redskins Rule” holds true, Mitt Romney will win the election on Tuesday.
But I don’t believe in silly superstitions so I’m dismissing this series of sports occurrences and forecasting that Obama will win the election to the White House – if only by a thin margin. A CNN poll shows the race is tied nationally — Obama 49%, Romney 49 % — but with Obama holding a slight edge in several key battleground states like Ohio and Wisconsin.
“Our work is not yet done,” Obama told nearly 20,000 people who filled the street in front of the Wisconsin capital building.
The race between Obama and Romney can’t get any closer, but here are five reasons why Obama will win Tuesday:
Obama will win Ohio
Ohio is a key battleground state that many election experts say will determine the outcome of the race. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. But according to organized labor, Obama will win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes as long as he keeps Mitt Romney’s margin of advantage among white voters to 10% or less.
Moreover, the Obama campaign’s ground game has been in place since the 2008 election and the campaign believes it has a solid operation in place to turn out votes in record numbers.
About 40 percent of voters have already cast ballots and early voting appears to favor Democrats.
“As a result of that strong foundation and enthusiasm for President Obama, today we are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain – and ahead of Mitt Romney,” said Jeremy Bird, the Obama campaign’s national field director.
Rev. Jesse Jackson, appearing on CNN Monday, traveled to Ohio and across the Midwest this week and said lines to vote were much longer than lines in 2008.
The Black Vote
African Americans appear to be taking advantage of early voting and turning out in large numbers over the past two weeks. The Obama campaign feels that black Americans will also show up in force on Tuesday.